kal wrote:Ten years until AM is gone? What do you think?
Hard to imagine AM disappearing completely in any hurry. The following random points seem to make it unlikely.
The number of AM stations in the U.S. seems to be increasing, not decreasing.
The FM band seems to be at a breaking point now in Canada's Top Markets. Yes, that's been said repeatedly over at least the last 20 years, but this time might be different.
Canada's solution of Short Spacing FM stations may be on a collision course with IBOC, the U.S. approach to Digital Radio where AM simulcasts would seem ideally suited to being placed on an alternate HD Radio channel of a sister FM station. Most of what I've read says that using IBOC full bandwidth on FM, i.e. - a full set of HD Radio channels on an FM station, won't work properly when the station is Short Spaced with another nearby FM station.
Two factors that could have a big impact on Audio in the Home, or could totally flop, are the Internet-delivered on-demand approach of Netflix and the huge gamble of car makers on the Broadband-delivered on-demand approach of their Auto Entertainment systems. I say "Broadband" because SiriusXM has bought some of the auto suppliers in hopes of using their satellites to deliver to the vehicle instead of cellular-based Internet.
Audio in the Home could be served by an expansion of Netflix-like services to include Audio, or by the expansion of Auto Entertainment systems into the Home. Were either approach to become popular, it could easily encompass and effectively replace Radio, both AM and FM. Odds aren't that great on either expansion into Home Audio happening. But who would have predicted the success of the Smartphone beyond Business (early Blackberry) before the iPhone appeared on the scene? And that wasn't so very long ago.