My NewCap Predictions

Radio news from Alberta

Postby jon » Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:59 pm

For my money, if JOE-FM played the music that CAM-FM does, their ratings should improve. Because Corus owns both JOE and COOL 8-80, I assume that JOE cannot play anything prior to 1980, to avoid competing with COOL. CAM does a nice job of playing music from the '60s, '70s, '80s, '90s and 2000's.

Along that same line of thinking, I wouldn't be too surprised to see CAM-FM morph into ED-FM and move to 96.3. Assuming Big Earl's next two BBM ratings books don't improve significantly.

Time will tell.
User avatar
jon
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 9256
Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 10:15 am
Location: Edmonton

Postby Aaron » Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:10 pm

16% of weekly spins on JOE are of songs released prior to 1980, which is on par with JACK Vancouver and Calgary. They could maybe stand to dip into the 70s a little more, but the station is sitting at #2 F25-54 and #1 F25-44, so they'd have to be cautious.
Aaron
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 782
Joined: Sun Jun 11, 2006 7:21 pm

Postby monakitty » Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:05 pm

Yes, the station could dip into the 70's more. Maybe a little "Long train runnin." Sounds like a JOE-FM guy to know that 16% statistic. So, if you are, answer the question. Will JOE NOT dip because of COOL-880?
monakitty
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 8:12 pm

Postby Aaron » Fri Jul 07, 2006 5:38 am

I'm not a JOE guy, just a guy with access to BDS. I doubt 880 would keep JOE from dipping more into the 70s. You take care of the big FM moneymakers' needs first and shape the AM music formats around that.

It's probably more to do with their decision to skew the thing completely female. It's the most female skewed JOE/Jack/BOB in the country.
Aaron
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 782
Joined: Sun Jun 11, 2006 7:21 pm

Postby jon » Fri Jul 07, 2006 7:48 pm

Given Easy Rock Edmonton's history of demographics heavily weighted in favour of females, JOE's success in that demographic is nothing short of amazing. And their last ratings period showed a significant recovery.

But it is important to not miss the longer history, which was that, before this last ratings period, JOE-FM had dropped to almost half of its peak during its first year, to a point that was the same or lower than the disasterous first ratings period after they switched from Top 40 to Super Hits of the 90s and 80s.

I believe that they could have sustained most, if not all, of the first year peak ratings by spending as much effort reinventing themselves musically, as they did initially inventing themselves. To a person, everyone I've talked to who listened to them (I don't know anyone who is still listening to them) said that they stopped listening after a year because the music that had been fresh at the beginning of the year was just being repeated, and wasn't fresh anymore at the end of the year. Given that many of the JOE listeners were non-radio listeners who had turned their radios back on to hear JOE. They just turned their radios back off after a year, going back to their own music collection (CDs or MP3 player), and some have switched to satellite radio.

Obviously, we'll know more once we see JOE's next ratings book.
User avatar
jon
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 9256
Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 10:15 am
Location: Edmonton

Postby Aaron » Fri Jul 07, 2006 8:43 pm

It's still very early in the Adult Hits game in North America, but Joe seems to be following a fairly common trend of unfocused success at launch, a fairly steep fall, and re-grouping and winning a more specific demo.

Musical re-invention will be necessary for many of these stations given the fatal flaw of the format: It needs both familiarity and constantly evolving variety. Variety can only evolve so far before you lose familiarity.

The solution for many will be currents - the only forward moving source of variety.

Joe's turned themselves into the defacto Hot AC with currents amounting to 21% of weekly spins, and they're still the 2nd highest cumeing station in the market leaving them plenty of opportunity to gain the loyalty of even more women.
Aaron
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 782
Joined: Sun Jun 11, 2006 7:21 pm


Return to Alberta

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 106 guests