Any future for the Desktop Computer?

News, discussion and questions about technology and computers, whether broadcast-related or not.

Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby jon » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:09 am

Is the desktop in its death throes?
By Jameson Berkow, Financial Post
August 27, 2010

Many have long predicted the impending death of the home desktop computer, but nobody expected the end to come so soon.

“In three years’ time, desktops will be irrelevant,” John Herlihy, vice-president of global ad operations for Google Inc., told Ireland’s Digital Landscapes Conference in March.

“I would say that is fairly accurate.... I wouldn’t be surprised if it was even sooner,” agreed Ronald Cenfetelli, professor of management information systems at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business. “And I think you’re seeing that in the marketplace right now.”

Intel Corp. hammered what could be the final nail in the coffin of the desktop PC Friday morning, when it warned investors its quarterly revenue will fall short of its own estimates. The world’s largest maker of PC processor chips said weaker-than-expected demand for personal computers will hurt Intel’s third-quarter sales to the tune of US$1-billion, possibly more.

The announcement was simply the latest harbinger of doom for desktop PCs. Market research firm Forrester Inc. says desktops and laptops in 2008 were tied, with each holding about 45% of the U.S. consumer computing market. Since then, the desktop market share has fallen dramatically, replaced mostly by wildly popular tablet and netbook devices such as Apple’s iPad. By 2015, Forrester projects the market share for desktops will be just 18%. An overwhelming majority of computing products will be portable by mid-decade.

Best known for providing the technology at the heart of many popular desktop and laptop computers, Intel has been slow to adapt to increasing consumer demand for more mobility.

“Intel really missed the boat,” said Josh Martin, senior analyst for wireless media services at Massachusetts-based Strategy Analytics. “What was it that caused Intel to be so far delayed and so far behind everybody else I don’t have an answer for that,” he said. “It is definitely going to be an uphill battle for them.”

The company has been scrambling to catch up in recent weeks to such leading mobile chip makers as Qualcomm Inc. Last week, Intel announced its largest-ever acquisition, paying US$7.68-billion for security software firm McAfee Inc. Intel said the purchase was motivated from a desire to embed better security features into its processors. However, industry analysts argue the move had more to do with Intel’s efforts to break into chip making for mobile devices, which tend to require more enhanced security features.

Those arguments were validated Friday, when Reuters reported the U.S. chip giant could finalize a deal this weekend to purchase the wireless processor unit of German chipmaker Infineon Technologies AG.

Intel would indeed be wise to shift its development focus away from desktops, sales of which have been falling precipitously for some time now.

“The desktop business has been slowly declining over the last three years,” said Allan Kambeitz, merchandising director for Best Buy Canada. “So what we’ve done in that business is we’ve tried to minimize our assortment a little bit.” When Mr. Kambeitz started at Best Buy nearly 15 years ago, he said desktops were “like the meat and potatoes of the computing business and laptops were hardly anything.”

“Now laptops are four to five times of our business compared to our desktop business,” Mr. Kambeitz said.

Not everyone expects the desktop computer to go the way of the dodo. Sarah Rotman Epps, a Forrester Research analyst, believes the rise of tablet devices could actually be a boon for desktop demand.

“When consumers who own tablets go to buy their next computer, they start to look at desktops as a great value for the processing power that you want and not see a need to pay extra for portability,” Ms. Epps says.

Based on a Forrester survey of 4,000 U.S. online consumers in June, she notes that buyers of an Apple iPad are twice as likely to also buy a desktop computer in the next year.

The gravity of the Intel warning, Ms. Epps argues, should not be exaggerated.

“I would be wary of making a conclusion just based on one quarter for one company, because there are a lot of reasons why that might happen,” she said, noting that other companies such as Hewlett Packard are actually “quite bullish” on their desktop PC sales.

jberkow@nationalpost.com
ref. - http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business ... story.html
User avatar
jon
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 9256
Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 10:15 am
Location: Edmonton

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby Jack Bennest » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:28 am

Interesting article. I think those of us who continue to use DT's will continue for at least 5-10 years. Even if there is no new chips.

I would hope there will be some technology that replaces the DT rather than a LT.

Only time will tell but I think the prediction is a bit pre-mature. Just how many DT's are connected right now? - millions and millions I would think all over the world and change does not occur that fast.

I was hoping for the Microsoft coffee table computer but that must have died on the vine.
User avatar
Jack Bennest
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 4471
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2006 9:25 pm

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby hagopian » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:37 am

Love the IMAC 27 and have a MacBook pro and Ipad. the Pad gets the vote I love the I Mac for long projects but for dropping in and doing mail and stuff, go pad.
I hate windows, after 20 years of wasted hours waiting for anti virus uploads, or the blue screen of death. Mac, I am told, is built on Unix...whatever....but it sure is more stable and easier to use. I know Mac has 20% of the desks, but this will grow. The Pad is the game changer, that, smart phones and something called QR code.
User avatar
hagopian
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 1188
Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:56 pm

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby Buckley » Sat Aug 28, 2010 11:04 am

Laptops are swell and all, and sell great to people who a) really need to be mobile with their computer, or b) don't know anything about computers so they buy a laptop because they weigh 2 pounds instead of 25 pounds and take up less space. The thing is, a laptop is a relatively useless machine when you want to do really high end stuff.

Some of the problems I have with laptops:

1) They're not as powerful: Gamers will do everything they can to keep the desktop alive, because aside from a few $3000 laptop models, you're not going to find a powerful laptop that can handle today's games, or the games that will come out in the future. And I'm sure the Mac Book Pro does some snazzy video editing, but ultimately a desktop (either Mac or PC) is going to be a way better tool for doing high end tasks like video or audio recording and editing.

2) They're not as upgradable: Gamers are stupid with money, but they're not going to spend $3000 every two years to buy a new laptop that can handle the latest games. They are however willing to spend $300 - $400 on a new video card, and $50 on another couple gig of RAM. And what happens when just the video "chip" dies in a laptop? Which brings me to...

3) You can't fix specific parts: Laptops have a few things you can remove from it (RAM, Hard Drive... I guess the processor maybe if you're super-ambitious), but if a video component dies? You're going to have to buy a whole new machine. If the monitor goes, you can get it replaced, but you pretty much have to either send it somewhere or take it somewhere. If one of my monitors die, I just go buy another monitor. 25 minutes and $150 later, I'm using my computer again. Even if you have a PC with on-board video, if it dies you can go and buy a cheap video card ($60) and have video again. Clearly you weren't concerned about video performance to begin with if you were using on-board, so you don't need to spend a lot. That component goes on a laptop and you're definitely going to need a new motherboard, but... no one stocks laptop motherboards. You're going to be buying a new machine.

4) Screen size: If they ever come out with a 20" Laptop screen, that will kind of defeat the purpose of being a "laptop" won't it? Sure you can get docking stations for a laptop, and some laptops have extra VGA ports so you can have a second monitor, but it's not the same. I currently have a 19" and 20" monitor hooked up to my computer for some awesome spanning action. When I had a laptop, I had a 19" monitor hooked up, spanning with my 15" display. Lame.

5) Price: If you know what you're doing, you can easily get a desktop and monitor for cheaper than you could a laptop with the same specs.

6) Noise: This might be a little specific to me, but for my recording at home, I used to have my laptop on my desk, along with my microphone. I'd record something, then spend half an hour trying to get the humming out of the audio, and I'd have to wait sometimes for my laptop fans to settle down before I could record. My desktop now sits underneath my desk, is far quieter than my laptop ever was to begin with, and the annoying humming is out of my recordings. Sure, I could have bought longer monitor and XLR cables so I could move the recording part away from the laptop (or vice versa) but it's an added expense all because I had a laptop.

7) You can steal laptops very easily: I've never been robbed (knock on wood) but I've always felt like if I was, and it was someone who's only going to take what they can carry in a couple bags (as opposed to some sort of heist where I get cleaned out, could be a bit tough in an apartment), they'd take a laptop before they're going to try and lug a desktop anywhere.

8) Full keyboard and mouse: Yes, I know, you can put your laptop on a desk and just plug in a USB keyboard and mouse. But the keyboard it comes with is small, and touchpads are such a nuisance.


I think the predictions in this story might be a little off. Gamers and other tech nerds will keep desktops alive for longer than 3 years (Starcraft 2 sold over 1.5 million copies worldwide in a few days, I'd bet most of those people probably either had to buy a new computer, or upgraded their current computer to play it at least 6 months prior to release, it won't run very well on a $750 Best Buy Laptop). Also, what about elementary and high schools? No way they're going to force kids to buy their own laptops to bring to school (and if they do that will be put to rest in about an hour when the toughest kids end up owning 50 laptops each), and unless they're going to purchase Kensington Locks for each station, schools aren't going to just stick a bunch of laptops on desks. And for radio station owners/managers, are you going to run a radio station off a laptop? I'm sure it's possible, but it wouldn't make a lot of sense. Will desktops be "irrelevant" in 3 years? Maybe to people who strictly use their computers for going on Facebook and typing up the odd document, but there'll always be a large number of "power users" who will buy desktops or at the very least, desktop parts to build/upgrade their own machines.
Buckley
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 229
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 3:18 pm

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby Dan Sys » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:10 pm

I actually know of 2 different people who have recently switched back to a desktop from a laptop. Their reasoning basically echoed what Buckley stated above. I think this prediction is a crock.
User avatar
Dan Sys
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 1886
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 7:05 pm
Location: Aldergroove, B.C.

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby jon » Sat Aug 28, 2010 12:46 pm

I, too, am still scratching my head to think of what else I'd be using in the next few years for the majority of my work, at my desk, other than a Desktop Computer.

The only thing I can think of, for the sales data behind this article, is that, just over two years ago, Desktops were better and cheaper than they are now. OK, today they do come standard, even at the bottom end, with more memory and larger hard drives than 2+ years ago.

But today, where do you find a desktop, without monitor, with dual core Intel processor for just over $300? That's what Dell Canada sold Radiofan, me and two members of my family in the Spring of 2008.

Between the lousy economy of the time, and a general disdain for Vista in the marketplace, Desktop sales may just have been so slow that companies like Dell just kept lowering the prices, until they were well below cost, until sales picked up. That's all I can think of.

As a result, I expect to get a lot more years out of my current desktop than I have in past purchases in recent years. Admittedly, I've upgraded to Windows 7 during a half price sale and added a 1.5TB internal hard drive. And, when I first bought the machine I paid $100 locally to replace the 1GB of memory with 4GB, and added the old 1GB to Radiofan's. My relatives bought a couple of months later when the configuration and price had changed: 2GB of memory, and $50 more as a price tag; still a great deal.


My wife's setup does make me think that one possible replacement for the Desktop does exist. She has a netbook which she uses solely on a table with 20" monitor and mouse. Whenever I need a portable device, I unplug it and take it along with me. My car even came with a heavy duty locking compartment to safely store it.

Today's netbooks don't have the power to replace most desktops but, once they do, add a keyboard to her configuration and it would work for me as a Desktop replacement.

Over the longer term, I could see smartphones replacing the netbook in the desktop cofiguration I've just described. Bluetooth would replace most, if not all, of the connections, saving me the unplug/re-plug I do now.
User avatar
jon
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 9256
Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 10:15 am
Location: Edmonton

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby Mike Cleaver » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:16 pm

I do my Radiographies Interviews on a small laptop, an Acer 11" which is three years old.
It has a very fast processor, 2 gigs of ram and a 150gig hard drive with all the audio and video outputs and audio inputs and usb ports.
It runs Adobe Audition and is fine for location recording.
But I would hate to have to edit on the thing.
The screen is too small.
I have a 23" wide screen on my desktop and that makes editing a breeze.
I have a high end sound card, which, if you use a laptop, you have to buy an external one or use the shitty built on the board sound card.
Same with the shitty built on the board video processor.
I can upgrade my desktop at any time, stuff in more ram, add more hard drives, upgrade the processor, sound card, video card and any other card I choose instead of having a bunch of external peripherals to drag around with the laptop.
As for noise while recording, my cpu is on the other side of the wall from my studio.
My portable recording rig, the litter Acer, a pair of earbuds, a CEntrance Mic Port Pro, a USB Cable and my microphone.
I'm not a fan of touchpads that replace the mouse and the smaller keyboards really don't work for a ham fisted guy.
I don't see desktops dying anytime soon for people who do professional work.
Mike Cleaver Broadcast Services
Engineering, News, Voice work and Consulting
Vancouver, BC, Canada

54 years experience at some of Canada's Premier Broadcasting Stations
User avatar
Mike Cleaver
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 2085
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2006 6:56 pm
Location: Vancouver

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby hagopian » Sun Aug 29, 2010 11:43 am

Try a 27 Inch I Mac and weep, Mike. KILLS.
I used Goldwave - worked great.
User avatar
hagopian
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 1188
Joined: Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:56 pm

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby Jack Bennest » Sun Aug 29, 2010 4:27 pm

Read a number of internet articles on this subject.

1. more hand held devices replacing the need for a desk top
2. laptops provide mobility
3. desk tops take up space in a busy home

Ok - I guess I am in the minority - my home is full of computers and I don't think of myself as a techie or a nerd
I need my desktop. I will be the last. :bag: :victory:
User avatar
Jack Bennest
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 4471
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2006 9:25 pm

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby Buckley » Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:02 pm

Jack Bennest wrote:Read a number of internet articles on this subject.

1. more hand held devices replacing the need for a desk top
2. laptops provide mobility
3. desk tops take up space in a busy home

Ok - I guess I am in the minority - my home is full of computers and I don't think of myself as a techie or a nerd
I need my desktop. I will be the last. :bag: :victory:


What does 3 even mean!? You stick it under the desk, it doesn't take up any usable space (unless you don't have a desk, in which case Chiropractors must love these people who spend hours hunched over a laptop). And what is a "busy home"? Are there a lot of people who leave their computers right in the middle of a hallway and find it a nuisance to jump over every time they're running back and fourth from the kitchen to their bedroom trying to get dressed for work and get lunches ready for their kids before they send them off to school? Complete nonsense :-)
Buckley
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 229
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 3:18 pm

Re: Any future for the Desktop Computer?

Postby jawbone » Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:16 pm

As far as reliability, I trust my PC more than my laptop. I still do regular backups though.
User avatar
jawbone
Advanced Member
 
Posts: 163
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2009 4:47 pm


Return to Computer & Technology News

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 105 guests