Are Book Stores Next?

[jon]

Does the near-death state of "Record Stores", i.e. - brick and mortar retailers that sell new CDs and perhaps new vinyl, mean that Book Stores are not far behind?

There are actually as many differences as similarities between the two businesses. Paper books are still well over 90% of the market, with eBooks trailing badly. Internet web sites and the like have certainly replaced some book usage, especially reference books, but it is magazines and newspaers that have really suffered market loss to Internet usage. CDs, of course, have been hugely impacted by digital downloads to MP3 players of one type or another.

Pricing is another difference. Brick and mortar retailers often have/had CD sales with prices nearly as good as the best on-line price. Brick and mortar book prices, however, are typically 50-100% more than prices on-line. Despite the much greater weight and volume, on-line book sellers are just as likely to offer free shipping, often with a minimum purchase of $25, as on-line CD sellers.

The most overlooked difference, however, has seemingly been overlooked by Brick and Mortar retailers: you can browse a book in a book store, but you cannot listen to a CD in a Record Store. In the few that allowed sampling of CDs in the last 20 years, it was a huge hassle compared to simply picking up a book. As well as having to find and use equipment within the store to listen, CDs are sealed, but books are not. Ironically, it is easier to listen to samples of a CD on-line than it is to browse a book on-line -- the exact opposite to brick and mortar stores. Though neither lets you view the "Liner Notes" -- the little booklets that come with (some) CDs because an unsealed CD cannot be sold as New.

DVDs, of course, are next in line, after CDs, to see the same trend. In fact, it has already started.

But books still have a long life in paper form. Not that eBook reading will not continue to grow, but it will be a much slower transition.

To put it all in perspective, I remember 1975 when our Publications group at the University of Alberta's Computing Services department had a discussion of eBooks and eBook readers. We thought they were "just around the corner" but would likely jump to 50/50 market share with paper books. I'm still waiting.

[Howaboutthat]

So what kind of time frame are you talking about?

1 year, 100 years?

[jon]

So what kind of time frame are you talking about?

1 year, 100 years?

In terms of books, "what we are waiting for" is widespread acceptance among a generation. Or at least a half generation. Unlike music, reading books is not a nearly universal passion among teenagers today. It could, of course, happen among pre-teens or 20-somethings at some point, too.

But, until that does, I don't see Critical Mass on eBooks happening. So, hard to say, how long, but I think 15 years is the absolute minimum before eBooks displace books as the majority market share. And then only if some "half generation" gets addicted to eBooks in the next year or two.

On the personal side, I looked seriously at eBook readers now that I'm doing more "computer programming" type stuff (our new web host for this site and others is more stable but requires programming to automate things like backup) a couple of weeks ago because of my new need for reference books. Instead, I'm opting for a second monitor for my computer that I install "vertically" so it is longer up and down, more like a page of a book. After all, reference material is available on-line. Yes, I could use separate windows on a single monitor, but I find that the software I use is best run full screen ("maximized").


It is tempting to say that the fate of bookstores is tied to the fate of books. But that is not necessarily so. On-line retailers have a huge price advantage, as well as a much better selection. First, they are going to have to find a way to let people look through an entire book, not just a few pages, as amazon does now, but without, in essence, letting people read the entire book on-line for free. Probably by setting time limits per book. Second, they have to create the book browsing/buying experience that many readers love in a brick and mortar bookstore. The look and feel of the book coupled with the social experience that seems an extension of the coffee "shop". I don't have a clue how of if they will do that.

In the final analysis, bookstores may end up outliving paper books. One scenario is to have the "coffee shop extension" model for bookstores continue with eBooks.

Again, bookstores and record stores are really very different, especially in the power their owners have with the "publishers". The federal government actually had to reign in the business practices of the largest bookstore chains because they were nearly bankrupting the publishers: don't pay the publisher for a book or magazine until it is sold, return it if it doesn't sell, and don't even pay for what you've sold for 6 months. Record stores never had that kind of power with record companies.

[Mike Cleaver]

I haven't bought a "hard copy" book, newspaper or magazine for years.
I get all my books and magazines and newspapers electronically.
It's partly convenience, partly being environmentally friendly by not having to throw away or recycle newspapers and magazines and a lack of space to keep books with today's smaller living spaces.
And with electronic versions, they easily can be updated so you have access to the latest information.
I had hundreds of books, all of which I donated when I made my most recent move.

[Jack Bennest]

I look forward to my real retirement. An old LP playing in the stereo hifi next to a crackling fire with a good book like Treasure Island.

Can you imagine all that above being replaced by a tv fireplace show, a scratchy mp3 and a Kinder. Bah Humbug

[PMC]

Can you imagine all that above being replaced by a tv fireplace show, a scratchy mp3 and a Kinder. Bah Humbug

Someone giving you a lump of coal

Rodney Crowell and the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band summed it up in the tune American Dream... it can all be, a state of mind.

Merry Christmas Jack !

[pave]

Hundreds of caves in France and Spain containing ancient drawings and writings have been discovered, explored and tested with the oldest estimated to be dating back as far as 35, 000 years. A number of caves also drew particular attention because of the amount of symbols and writings painted on or scratched into the walls. One contained a rather sinister inscription that was originally translated to read: “Ate Joe.” Many years passed before other experts re-evaluated the inscriptions and finally came up with what they determined was a more accurate version: “Eat at Joes.” Revelation: Advertising predates Journalism!

As to rocks containing messages: This would be a primary example of “hard copy”. Now, if my ‘rithmetic serves me, a 35, 000-year time frame represents approximately one thousand generations of humans who have been exposed to “hard copy” in one form or another. Our brains and cultures have had a fair amount of time and opportunity to evolve and/or develop a processing strategy for this kind of material.

Broadcast is no more than 4 generations old. Reading material from an electronic screen is only a part of this generation's experience! As such, it may be little surprise that humans have difficulty in consciously processing these new, unique, foreign and electronically delivered forms of communication. This circumstance would also include those humans who toil in the Radio business. We, too, are having serious difficulties processing this medium - and it shows.

All of the above to say the following: The greatest involvement with the material - understanding, retention and overall enjoyment still comes from reading hard copy!

If book peddlers don't already know that, it's time to get apprised and begin exploiting the information in their own marketing.

[CubbyCam]

None the less, my wife, a voracious reader has had an e-reader for about three years now and loves it. I hardly know anyone who doesn't have one now... and when I was in Mexico last March, I'd estimate that MORE than 50 percent of the people reading around the pool were using an e-book. I usually only read in bed but more than 50 percent of my reading is done from my Android smart phone. I love it. It's always on my hip... to fill the time in the waiting room at the doctors office, or while waiting for someone in the car... my book's always there. This, from a family that still has 1500 hard cover books in their master bedroom. I think traditional book stores may soon be in trouble.

[J Kendrick]

I think traditional book stores may soon be in trouble.

Until the screen freezes, the batteries die, or the power goes out...

... things that can't ever happen to a book.

[pave]

Quite so, Cubby. I'm not suggesting the electronic screen isn't fun, handy, trance-inducing and addictive. (I have enough drool on my shirts to demonstrate that proposition.)

I'm suggesting there will always be a need for hard copy. I could, however, be convinced that an extremely large portion of the audience or consumer-base will not make that distinction.

So, would I invest in a book store? No. But then, I've missed other investment opportunities, as well.

[CubbyCam]

I think traditional book stores may soon be in trouble.

Until the screen freezes, the batteries die, or the power goes out...

... things that can't ever happen to a book.

Not so fast Mr. K. Some books apparently DO need tech support: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX0-nqRmtos

[PMC]

As Pave pointed out, hard copy is in demand, and the future printed bookstore is going to be more like a staples, where you can custom order a print of any book you like. Some publishers now, have a code on a book, you go to their website insert the code, and you can read the same book or others online for a given period of time. By being able to read other books online, they get printed orders for the texts. O'Reilly is one publisher doing this format. Based on what I have read, the format is doing ok.

[Tape Splicer]

Sure hope the book, paper back or hard cover doesn't be come an endangered species - The smell of a new book; the ink the paper the feel of the spine being bent back for the first time, the feel of high quality paper - a tablet or smart devise doesn't have that appeal for me.
What it comes down to is whether hard copy, or electronic device what maters is that there is enjoyment in the process of reading.

[Steve Sanderson]

I think a tablet might appeal to me....The ability to enlarge the font would be good
for these old eyes!...Something I can't do with my paperbacks!

[Neumann Sennheiser]

Comparatively, I see it this way.
One can view any and all of the world's great paintings and art works on-line at leisure but I still can't imagine The Louvre, The Tate Museum, The Metropolitan Museum of Art or The Hermitage wanting for customers anytime soon.
I have a wonderful, old leather-bound copy of Camus' "The Stranger" that still gives me a special excitement and warmth to hold in my own two hands.