Howaboutthat wrote:So what kind of time frame are you talking about?
1 year, 100 years?
In terms of books, "what we are waiting for" is widespread acceptance among a generation. Or at least a half generation. Unlike music, reading books is not a nearly universal passion among teenagers today. It could, of course, happen among pre-teens or 20-somethings at some point, too.
But, until that does, I don't see Critical Mass on eBooks happening. So, hard to say, how long, but I think 15 years is the absolute minimum before eBooks displace books as the majority market share. And then only if some "half generation" gets addicted to eBooks in the next year or two.
On the personal side, I looked seriously at eBook readers now that I'm doing more "computer programming" type stuff (our new web host for this site and others is more stable but requires programming to automate things like backup) a couple of weeks ago because of my new need for reference books. Instead, I'm opting for a second monitor for my computer that I install "vertically" so it is longer up and down, more like a page of a book. After all, reference material is available on-line. Yes, I could use separate windows on a single monitor, but I find that the software I use is best run full screen ("maximized").
It is tempting to say that the fate of bookstores is tied to the fate of books. But that is not necessarily so. On-line retailers have a huge price advantage, as well as a much better selection. First, they are going to have to find a way to let people look through an entire book, not just a few pages, as amazon does now, but without, in essence, letting people read the entire book on-line for free. Probably by setting time limits per book. Second, they have to create the book browsing/buying experience that many readers love in a brick and mortar bookstore. The look and feel of the book coupled with the social experience that seems an extension of the coffee "shop". I don't have a clue how of if they will do that.
In the final analysis, bookstores may end up outliving paper books. One scenario is to have the "coffee shop extension" model for bookstores continue with eBooks.
Again, bookstores and record stores are really very different, especially in the power their owners have with the "publishers". The federal government actually had to reign in the business practices of the largest bookstore chains because they were nearly bankrupting the publishers: don't pay the publisher for a book or magazine until it is sold, return it if it doesn't sell, and don't even pay for what you've sold for 6 months. Record stores never had that kind of power with record companies.